Long-term targets are necessary to ensure that the needs of present and future generations are balanced. FABLE supports the design of national targets that meet international climate and biodiversity commitments, while ensuring domestic food security and a viable land use sector.
To ensure that the sum of FABLE pathways meets sustainable development objectives, Consortium members need to quantify global benchmarks that they aim to achieve as a group.
Four principles to guide our selection of global targets:
1. Use as few global targets as necessary. A full systems analysis of the FABLE dimensions would allow for a comprehensive assessment of synergies and trade-offs between measures reaching multiple targets simultaneously. In the spirit of ensuring efficiency of policies, the aim of the analysis is to cover major trade-offs and account for synergies in land-use and food systems. A balance between efficiency and effectiveness must be struck in the design of Scenathons aiming to achieve joint targets.
2. Focus on mid-century targets. Emphasis is placed on long-term strategies which enable the transformation towards sustainable land-use and food systems. Hence, global targets are preferably framed for 2050. When appropriate, internationally agreed policy targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, can provide intermediate benchmarks. This also reflects the thinking for long-term climate strategies, as envisioned under the Paris Agreement (Article 4.19)
3. Use science-based targets that have been politically agreed, when possible. Targets for FABLE analysis must be supported by the latest science.
4. Ensure that targets are applicable at local, national, and global levels. While FABLE targets are set at the global scale, it is important that these targets are framed in such a way that they can be translated into measures, which are relevant at national and local scales. The target setting needs to enable a dialogue between global ambition and action taken individually by country teams.
Land and Biodiversity
A minimum share of earth’s terrestrial land supports biodiversity conservation. No net loss by 2030 and an increase of at least 15% by 2050 in the area of land where natural processes predominate with the milestone of 5% increase in 2030.
A minimum share of Earth’s terrestrial land is within protected areas. At least 30% of global terrestrial area by 2030.
Zero net deforestation. Forest gain should at least compensate for the forest loss at the global level by 2030.
Greenhouse gas emissions from AFOLU
Greenhouse gas emissions from crops and livestock compatible with keeping the rise in average global temperatures to below 1.5°C, which we interpret as below 4 GtCO2e yr-1 by 2050 (3.9 Gt for non-CO2 emissions and 0.1 Gt for CO2 emissions).
Greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land-Use, Land-Use-Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) compatible with keeping the rise in average global temperatures to below 1.5°C. Negative global greenhouse gas emissions from LULUCF by 2050.
Zero hunger. Average daily energy intake per capita higher than the minimum requirement in all countries by 2030.
Low dietary disease risk. Diet composition to achieve premature diet related mortality below 5%.
Water use in agriculture within the limits of internally renewable water resources, taking account of other human water uses and environmental water flows. Blue water use for irrigation <2453 km3yr-1 (global estimates in the range of 670-4044 km3yr-1) given future possible range (61-90%) in other competing water uses.
Nitrogen release from agriculture within environmental limits. N use <69 Tg N yr-1 total Industrial and agricultural biological fixation (global estimates in the range of 52-113 Tg N yr-1) and N loss from agricultural land <90 Tg N yr-1 (global estimates in the range of 50-146 Tg N yr-1) by 2050.
Phosphorus release from agriculture within environmental limits. P use <16 Tg P yr-1 flow from fertilizers to erodible soils (global estimates in the range of 6.2-17 Tg P yr-1) and P loss from ag soils & human excretion <8.69 Tg P yr-1 flow from freshwater systems into ocean by 2050.